Issues in Quantitative Modelling in the Early Warning of Refugee Migration

Susanne Schmeidl, J. Craig Jenkins


This article discusses the problems associated
with indicator analysis for the
purpose of early warning. While the
authors endorse the idea of quantitative
EWM, they are sceptical of the understanding
that many have of what EW
analysis entails. In this article, they
identify the limits of quantitative EW
analysis and address many of the major
problems that confront those who are
committed to quantitative EW analysis.
In particular, the authors discuss
the following issues that need to be addressed
when engaging in quantitative
early warning analysis: the problem of
"late warning;" problems of contextual
sensitivity; problems of temporal development;
data availability and measurement;
and problems with the definition
of the appropriate unit of analysis.

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